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Census data revisited. We can do more with the data from the 2000 census referenced in the last post; we can use it to try to estimate the sizes of the living generations. The age brackets used in the census report, unfortunately, don't quite line up with the generational boundaries in the year 2000. But some are close - 19 years of age will do for the upper boundary of Millennials, 59 years of age for Boomers, and 74 for Silents. The worst of it is the 35-44 years range, which sits astride the boundary of Xers and Boomers. Let's split that population in two, assigning half to each generation. Doing that, we get this table:
Posted by Steve Barrera at 10:08 PM
Demographics and the labor market. Stories about the "worker shortage" to come always mention the demographic baby boom of 1946-1964 as the source of a peak in the distribution by age of America's population, and the post-1980 boom as the source of another. Presumably, there is a valley in the middle there, from whence the dreaded diminishing of the labor pool. But a look at the 2000 census data (PDF format) reveals that this valley is simply not that deep, if it is even there. Here are the statistics by ten year age bracket, ignoring tots and geezers:
The largest cohort group is those born between 1956 and 1965, confirming the baby boom perception, but there are actually more Americans born from 1966-1975 than from 1946-1955. Where are these people coming from, if birth rates indeed dropped greatly after the post-WWII baby-making craze? The answer is obvious: immigration, which is mostly of young adults. If one believes that the economy is unlikely to soon experience another explosion of innovation and job creation, such as was seen in the 1980s and 1990s, then one can see that there will be a buyer's market for labor for quite some time to come. Posted by Steve Barrera at 10:05 PM
dubyadubyadubya. Here's an interesting Millennial generation phenomenon - a collection of web sites, from young folks who support Bush, which have a postmodern flair of chaotic imagery and schizophrenic style. Conservative moralistic Boomers and reactionary Xers might support these youngsters for their patriotism, but would probably not approve of their glorification of trashy pop culture icons. The sites published by conservative members of older generations are more likely to be reserved and serious - they do, after all, have a very important message to deliver. Posted by Steve Barrera at 11:09 PM
We're reaching the other side. The verdict is in, just browse the April news links: the Iraq War is looking like the exact opposite of the Vietnam War of two generations ago. It's bringing the country together, instead of tearing it apart. It's generating sympathy and respect for America's soldiering class, instead of malice and spite. This transformation is a sign of the dawning of a new saecular age, one at the opposite end of the cycle from the 60s Awakening. Get ready for the real revolution! Posted by Steve Barrera at 8:12 PM
Battle lines drawn. The war in Iraq has starkly exposed the division in American society which is the legacy of the 60s-era revolution. It's not a 100% correlation, but it's generally true that if you're against the war you're against Bush and in the "blue zone," and if you're for it you're for Bush and in the "red zone." But the blue zone's attempts to make political fodder of the war have failed; the war protesting seems out of place - it belongs to a different age. Attempts by Silent media veterans to reprise the anti-establishment roles they developed during the Vietnam War have been met with scorn. A new media era is arriving, with a younger generation of embedded reporters working beside soldiers who are compatriots, not competitors. Negativism, a Third Turning hallmark, has only embarassed Democratic leadership when directed at the war. Senator John Kerry's comments about "regime change" totally miss the point - he is witnessing a regime change. The old America, which the G.I. generation stewarded through the long Cold War, which worked within frameworks and after much deliberation, is gone. In its place is a nation on a mission, led by a determined Boomer. One could almost write the headline "George W. Bush drags America kicking and screaming into the Fourth Turning." Posted by Steve Barrera at 6:10 PM |
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| Lost | 104+ |
| G.I. | 80-104 |
| Silent | 62-80 |
| Boomer | 44-62 |
| Gen-X | 23-44 |
| Millennial | ?-23 |
| Homeland | ? |
| High | 1946-1964 |
| Awakening | 1964-1984 |
| Unraveling | 1984-? |
| Crisis | ?- |
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Where noted, background information on generations theory is copyright 1996 Broadway Books. All other content on this web site is copyright 2002-2005 Generation Watch and Steve Barrera. All rights reserved. |